USDA experts have lowered their forecasts for soybean production and stocks, but they will still exceed last year's figures by 9% and 15% respectively.

In the August USDA report, changes in the soybean balance were primarily related to the United States, and they aligned with analysts’ preliminary assessments. As a result, market prices reacted with a decline, considering the improved weather conditions in the U.S.

On the Chicago exchange, soybean futures for September fell by 1.1% to $491.4/ton (-8% for the month), and November futures dropped by 0.8% to $480.4/ton (-1.6%).

Compared to the July report, the new balance for soybeans in the 2023/24 marketing year underwent the following changes:

• The initial inventory estimate was raised by 0.2 to 103.1 (99.14) million tons due to adjustments in the 2022/23 balance.
• The forecast for global production was lowered by 2.52 to 402.79 (369.74) million tons, including a reduction for the U.S. by 2.58 to 114.45 (116.38) million tons due to a decrease in yield from 3.46 to 3.42 (3.32) tons/ha, although analysts had estimated it at 3.447 tons/ha.
• The estimate for global exports was reduced by 0.52 to 168.77 (168.95) million tons, with a decrease for the U.S. by 0.68 to 49.67 (53.89) million tons.
• The forecast for global ending stocks was lowered by 1.58 to 119.4 million tons, which is slightly below analysts’ estimates of 120.04 million tons, but significantly exceeds the stocks of the past three seasons: 102.9 million tons in 2022/23, 99.7 million tons in 2021/22, and 100.3 million tons in 2020/21.