News Agricultural news: The first million tons of grain has been harvested in Ukraine.. According to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, as of July 6, from 308.2 thousand hectares or 3% of the planned area, domestic farmers have harvested 1.024 million tons of grain and legume crops with an average yield of 33.2 c/ha. In terms of crops, the harvesting dynamics are as follows: Barley: From 235 thousand hectares or 16% of the area, 805.8 thousand tons have been threshed with a yield of 34.3 c/ha. Wheat: From 51.4 thousand hectares or 1% of the area, 172 thousand tons have been harvested with a yield of 33.5 c/ha. Peas: From 21.7 thousand hectares or 15% of the area, 45.8 thousand tons have been harvested with a yield of 21.1 c/ha. Harvesting has started in 12 regions of Ukraine, with farmers in Mykolaiv region leading in gross harvest, having threshed 118 thousand hectares or 19% of the planned area. Among them, the highest grain volume of 468.8 thousand tons has been harvested by farmers in Odesa region. In 5 regions of Ukraine, harvesting of winter rapeseed has started. Currently, from 47.7 thousand hectares or 3% of the planned area, 86.2 thousand tons have been threshed with an average yield of 18.1 c/ha.

News World news: India significantly increased its import of vegetable oils in June amid declining global prices. India, being the largest global importer of vegetable oils, continues to increase its import, taking advantage of the decline in global prices to a yearly minimum. According to Reuters, in June, the country increased its import of palm oil by 49% compared to May, reaching a three-month high of 655,000 tonnes. The import of soybean oil increased by 35% to 432,000 tonnes, and the import of sunflower oil increased by 36% to 190,000 tonnes. On the Bursa Malaysia Exchange, August futures for palm oil rose by 1.2% to 3,911 ringgit/tonne or $840/tonne (+9.8% over two weeks) in anticipation of data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Analysts predict a decrease in production and stocks due to increased exports in June. On the Chicago Exchange, August futures for soybean oil fell by 3.1% to $1,387/tonne (+9.2% in a week, +26% in a month) as traders took profits after a sharp price increase during the past week. Prices for sunflower oil for buyer delivery remain at $900/tonne, but in Ukraine, the availability of offers is decreasing due to active exports, which have already reached 4.8 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year, surpassing the forecast of 4.5 million tonnes.

News World news: Wheat prices in the US have increased by 5-6% due to harvesting delays and the potential closure of the grain corridor in Ukraine. Abundant rainfall in the regions where winter wheat is grown in the US, dry weather in Canada and Eastern Russia, and the potential closure of the grain corridor have led to speculative increases in wheat prices in the US, rising by 5-6%. After the extended weekend in the US due to the Independence Day celebrations, wheat markets turned upwards due to excessive rainfall in the regions where winter wheat is grown, which will continue for another week and delay harvests. As of July 2, winter wheat in the US has been harvested on 37% of the total area, compared to 52% last year and the five-year average of 46%. According to the Crop Explorer report by the USDA, there is a moisture deficit in the southern Canadian prairies as the forecasted rains did not materialize in southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. Representatives from Russia have once again expressed their view on the inadvisability of continuing the operation of the grain corridor, so there should not be an increase in grain exports from Ukraine in July and August. On this news, September futures for wheat rose as follows: Soft red winter (SRW) wheat in Chicago increased by 5% to $247.7/tonne. Hard red winter (HRW) wheat in Kansas City rose by 6.2% to $310.9/tonne. Hard red spring (HRS) wheat in Minneapolis increased by 6% to $315.1/tonne. Black Sea wheat in Chicago rose by 0.3% to $237.25/tonne. Wheat on Euronext Paris increased by 2.3% to €233.25/tonne or $252.9/tonne. In the 2022/23 marketing year, EU countries have increased exports of soft wheat by 12% to 31.1 million tonnes compared to the previous season, but have reduced exports of hard wheat by 24% to 742,000 tonnes. The export of bakery flour has also decreased by 11% to 482,000 tonnes (in grain equivalent). The main European exporters of soft wheat in the 2022/23 marketing year were France (10.1 million tonnes), Romania (4.7 million tonnes), Germany (3.9 million tonnes), and Poland (3.6 million tonnes). Additionally, Poland became the largest exporter of durum wheat, shipping 185,000 tonnes. In Ukraine, purchase prices for wheat remain at the level of $160-170/tonne for deliveries to Danube ports, while procurement in Black Sea ports has practically stopped. At the same time, Russia continues to block Ukrainian exports, increasing its revenue from selling its own wheat. Over 50 million tonnes of Russian wheat have been exported in the 2022/23 marketing year, and it is planned to sell 45 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year. According to SovEcon, prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content rose to $232/tonne FOB. However, the lack of rainfall in the central, Volga, Siberian regions, and especially in Tatarstan significantly worsens the potential of spring wheat harvest.

News Agricultural news: Ukraine maintains high rates of sunflower oil exports. Despite a significant reduction in sunflower stocks in Ukraine, sunflower oil exports remained at a high level in June, reaching an estimated 476,000 tonnes, which significantly exceeded market expectations and exceeded the 453,000 tonnes exported in May. The main buyers of Ukrainian sunflower oil in June were Romania, Turkey, and India. Overall, in the 2022/23 marketing year, Ukraine has increased sunflower oil exports from 3.8 million tonnes to 4.7 million tonnes compared to the same period of the previous season. It is possible that the total sunflower oil export in the 2022/23 marketing year will reach 5 million tonnes, as there are still two months left until the end of the season. Due to the significant reduction in sunflower stocks in Ukraine, its export has decreased to a minimal level in the current season, reaching only 1.9 million tonnes.

News World news: Futures for palm and soybean oil have increased by 8.5-10% over two sessions, following the rise in soybean prices. The decrease in the estimated soybean planting areas in the US has shocked the market and led to an 8.5% increase in palm oil prices and a 10% increase in soybean prices over the past two sessions. September futures for palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange rose by 5.1% to a three-month high of 3,985 ringgit/tonne or $854/tonne (+8.5% over two sessions) in response to Friday’s rise in soybean and soybean oil prices on the Chicago Exchange. Even the data from surveying company Intertek Testing Services, showing a 6.9% decline in palm oil exports from Malaysia in June, did not restrain speculative jumps. On the Chicago Exchange, July futures have seen an increase: Soybean oil: up 10% to $1,400/tonne (+9.7% in a week, +29% in a month). Soybean: up 5.4% to $574/tonne (+2.8%, +15.7%). It is worth noting that soybean oil prices have increased more significantly due to soybean stocks in the US being 17% lower than last year as of June 1. As a result, processors have started importing soybeans from Brazil to utilize their capacity and reduce production costs. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, soybean oil contracts rose by 6%, while palm oil rose by 4.9%. The rapid increase in soybean and palm oil prices has also supported sunflower oil prices, which rose by 1.7% to $895/tonne for buyer delivery, adding 7% in price over the week. Processors have reduced sunflower oil sales in anticipation of further price increases for vegetable oils. However, the significant supply of rapeseed and sunflower oil in the EU does not allow for a substantial increase in demand from European buyers, while the blockage of Black Sea ports prevents the delivery of Ukrainian sunflower oil to India and China.

News World news: The reduction in forecasts for rapeseed harvest in the EU and soybean harvest in the US is contributing to the increase in rapeseed prices. Soybean prices have risen by 7% over two sessions after the USDA lowered its estimate of soybean planting areas in the US by 1.62 million hectares. Following this, rapeseed prices on the exchange rose by 5.5%, receiving additional support from a report by consulting firm Strategie Grains, which lowered its forecast for rapeseed harvest in the EU in 2023 by 600,000 metric tons to 19.8 million metric tons due to drought conditions in the northern part of the EU. Despite the decrease in forecast, this still exceeds last year’s 19.2 million metric tons. Meanwhile, Strategie Grains increased its forecast for rapeseed imports from Ukraine to the EU due to its high profitability in processing, especially in Western European countries and the Baltic states. On the Paris exchange, August rapeseed futures rose by an additional 2.4% to 460 €/t or 501 $/t (+5.5% over two sessions, +4% over a week, +8.6% over a month). Significant stocks of old crop rapeseed and oil in the EU are putting pressure on the market, especially the physical market, as most processing plants are supplied with raw materials until September. November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 3.8% over two sessions to 736 CAD/ton or 555 $/ton (+2.2% over a week, +16.8% over a month). The increase in canola planting areas in Canada and improved weather conditions are increasing production prospects, so Canadian canola supplies will sharply increase in the fall. In Ukraine, purchasing prices for rapeseed remain at a low level of 330-340 $/ton for deliveries to Danube ports, while prices for deliveries to the Baltic States have risen by 10-20 €/ton to 400-405 €/ton, and for deliveries to Romania by 10 $/ton to 380-390 $/ton. Demand prices for deliveries to Germany range from 410-430 €/ton, but with delivery conditions only in September-October.

News Agricultural news: Ukraine has reached last year’s export volumes. According to the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development and Infrastructure of Ukraine, as of June 26, there are 29 ships in line in Turkish territorial waters waiting to export 1.4 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products to 5 countries in Africa and Asia, including China, Egypt, Bangladesh, and Turkey. In June, only 2 million tons of agricultural products were exported through Black Sea ports, and another 1 million tons are in the process of being loaded onto the 13 vessels registered in the grain initiative. The Ministry reports that if vessel registration is not extended, the grain agreement will come to a complete halt. According to the State Customs Service, as of June 30, 2022/23 MY, Ukraine exported 48.996 million tons of grains and legumes (3.658 million tons in June), compared to 48.355 million tons in the 2021/22 MY. However, the export of major agricultural crops decreased compared to the previous season: Wheat: decreased from 18.72 million tons to 16.836 million tons. Barley: decreased from 5.747 million tons to 2.704 million tons. Rye: decreased from 161,500 to 18,000 tons. Only corn increased from 23.409 million tons to 29.128 million tons. Meanwhile, the export of flour in the 2022/23 MY increased compared to the previous season, from 70.7 thousand tons to 153.6 thousand tons, including wheat flour, which increased from 69.2 thousand tons to 147.1 thousand tons.