Forecasts of a record soybean harvest in Brazil and reduced speculation in the US have led to a 4.7% decrease in soybean prices.

The weather front that brought heavy rains to the corn belt regions of the US over the weekend has lowered temperatures from 35°C to 30-31°C, causing soybean prices to fall by 4.7-5%. Additionally, the forecast of a record soybean harvest in Brazil in 2024 is putting further pressure on prices.

According to the Brazilian agency Safras & Mercado, the country is expected to achieve a record soybean harvest of 171.5 million tonnes in 2024, surpassing USDA’s projected 165 million tonnes. Soybean exports in 2024 are expected to increase by 4 million tonnes to 99 million tonnes, and processing is expected to rise by 1.6 million tonnes to 55 million tonnes.

In the South and Central plains of the US, unlike the Northern regions, there have been no precipitation, and only at the end of the week, some rains are expected, which may alleviate the heat.

On the Chicago exchange, September soybean futures fell by 4.8% to $503.6/ton, and November futures fell by 4% to $489.3/ton, completely losing the gains made in July due to the deterioration of agrometeorological conditions in the US.

According to the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, soybean crops are developing faster than last year and the five-year average. As of July 30, 83% of soybean crops were in the blooming stage (compared to 77% last year and 78% on average), and 50% of the pods were formed (compared to 41% last year and 47% on average for the past five years).

In a week, the percentage of soybean crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 52% (compared to 60% last year), particularly in the states of Kansas, Missouri, and Minnesota.

During the period of July 21-27, US soybean exports increased by 14% compared to the previous week, reaching 329.5 thousand tons, and totaled 50.512 million tons in the season, which is 5.9% behind last year’s pace.

In the Canadian prairies, there were scattered rains, but they came too late and will not be able to improve the condition of most crops from wheat to canola.

The decline in soybean prices intensified the pressure on rapeseed and canola quotes:

• November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange fell by 3.3% to 794 CAD/ton or 593 USD/ton.
• November rapeseed futures on the Paris Euronext fell by 3% to 445 €/ton or 489 USD/ton, losing 7.7% in price in two sessions.