The dry and hot weather in the southern regions of Ukraine has allowed for the start of sunflower harvesting, and yield forecasts for sunflowers are expected to increase due to favorable growing conditions. Over the next 10-15 days, the hot weather with slight precipitation will accelerate harvesting, leading to increased supply and, consequently, seasonal price reductions to the range of 12,000-13,000 UAH/ton with delivery to the factory. This comes against the backdrop of blocked exports of sunflower oil and meal through the Black Sea ports.

Neighboring EU countries are likely to continue the ban on sunflower deliveries after September 15, reducing export demand for sunflower seeds. However, last year, strong demand from the EU supported high purchase prices.

Prices for vegetable oils remain stable:

• Palm oil: $850-900/ton
• Soybean oil: $1100-1300/ton
• Sunflower oil: $900-930/ton with delivery to buyers.

The seasonal increase in supplies of new-season rapeseed and sunflower oil will exert pressure on prices, which will remain under the influence of low demand from processors in October-November. The cancellation of the ban on sunflower deliveries to Romania and Bulgaria may provide support.

According to Oil World (Germany), EU countries exported a record 963,000 tons of sunflower oil from October to June 2022/23 MY, exceeding the previous season by 369,000 tons. During April-June 2023, 318,000 tons of oil, mainly of Romanian and Bulgarian production, were exported, including 104,000 tons to Iraq, 28,000 tons to India, 31,000 tons to Morocco, and 26,000 tons to South Africa.

Meanwhile, in the 2022/23 MY, EU countries significantly increased rapeseed oil exports compared to the previous season, from 249,000 to 562,000 tons. Of this, 151,000 tons were delivered to China, 177,000 tons to Norway, and 12,000 tons to Pakistan.