Experts from Strategie Grains have revised down their production forecasts for wheat, barley, and maize in the EU for the 2023/24 marketing year due to challenging weather conditions.

Compared to previous estimates, the production forecasts have been lowered as follows:

• Soft wheat: down by 2.5 million tonnes to 126.2 million tonnes (+1% compared to 2022/23 MY)
• Barley: down by 0.8 million tonnes to 47.1 million tonnes (-8% compared to 2022/23 MY)
• Maize: down by 0.4 million tonnes to 60.8 million tonnes (+17% compared to 2022/23 MY)

Harvesting of wheat and barley is actively taking place in Europe, and preliminary data indicates “catastrophically” low yields in Spain and very low yields in Southeastern Europe, which experts attribute in part to excessive spring rainfall.

Spring barley has suffered from drought, especially in northern Europe, while the maize crop may decrease if strong rains do not occur in July. Yield prospects are slightly better in France and Central Europe.

At the same time, Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in the 2023/24 MY from 31.4 to 30.1 million tonnes, and revised the export forecast for the 2022/23 MY from 31.8 to 30.5 million tonnes.

Export prospects are being hampered by non-competitive wheat prices in France and uncertainty regarding shipments to China, which may reduce its imports of feed wheat due to the deterioration of its own harvest quality caused by heavy rains.