Soybean prices have risen by 7% over two sessions after the USDA lowered its estimate of soybean planting areas in the US by 1.62 million hectares. Following this, rapeseed prices on the exchange rose by 5.5%, receiving additional support from a report by consulting firm Strategie Grains, which lowered its forecast for rapeseed harvest in the EU in 2023 by 600,000 metric tons to 19.8 million metric tons due to drought conditions in the northern part of the EU. Despite the decrease in forecast, this still exceeds last year’s 19.2 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, Strategie Grains increased its forecast for rapeseed imports from Ukraine to the EU due to its high profitability in processing, especially in Western European countries and the Baltic states.

On the Paris exchange, August rapeseed futures rose by an additional 2.4% to 460 €/t or 501 $/t (+5.5% over two sessions, +4% over a week, +8.6% over a month).

Significant stocks of old crop rapeseed and oil in the EU are putting pressure on the market, especially the physical market, as most processing plants are supplied with raw materials until September.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 3.8% over two sessions to 736 CAD/ton or 555 $/ton (+2.2% over a week, +16.8% over a month). The increase in canola planting areas in Canada and improved weather conditions are increasing production prospects, so Canadian canola supplies will sharply increase in the fall.

In Ukraine, purchasing prices for rapeseed remain at a low level of 330-340 $/ton for deliveries to Danube ports, while prices for deliveries to the Baltic States have risen by 10-20 €/ton to 400-405 €/ton, and for deliveries to Romania by 10 $/ton to 380-390 $/ton. Demand prices for deliveries to Germany range from 410-430 €/ton, but with delivery conditions only in September-October.