Quotations for rapeseed on the Paris Euronext exchange have been falling for the second consecutive week, despite forecasts of a decrease in rapeseed crop in the EU and Canada, deterioration in soybean crop conditions in the USA, and rising oil prices.

During the week, November rapeseed futures on the Paris Euronext fell by 4.7% to €458.75/ton or $505/ton, gaining 4.7% over the month due to production reduction forecasts.

If last week’s prices fell due to increased supplies, especially from Ukraine, amid harvest, this week prices will be influenced by forecasts of reduced crops in the EU.

Experts from the European Commission lowered the rapeseed crop forecast in the EU for 2023 to nearly last year’s level, from 19.9 to 19.4 million tons, while in June they estimated it at 20.7 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for rapeseed imports into the EU for 2023/24 MY remained at 5.8 million tons, compared to 7.2 million tons in 2022/23 MY.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell by 2% to 809 CAD/ton or $610/ton last week, gaining 10% over the month due to precipitation deficit in the southern regions of the Canadian prairies. In the next 7-10 days, no precipitation is expected in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta, even though canola crops are at the pod-filling stage, which could reduce yield potential and increase speculative pressure on prices.

In Ukraine, as of July 28, 2.498 million tons of rapeseed have been harvested from 931.3 thousand hectares or 65% of the areas, with a yield of 2.68 tons/ha (2.56 tons/ha last year). In the coming days, precipitation is expected, especially in the western regions, which will delay harvest and reduce yields, although production forecasts remain at the level of 3.8-4 million tons.

Purchase prices for rapeseed at the end of the week increased to $370-375/ton or 14,800-15,300 UAH/ton with delivery to the Danube ports, but traders are holding back purchases due to the rise in freight rates from Danube ports to Constanța and the decrease in global prices.

Today’s report on soybean crop conditions in the USA could lead to a sharp increase in soybean prices, which will subsequently affect rapeseed and canola quotations.